https://aboutmusicschools.com https://slotmgc.com https://300thcombatengineersinwwii.com https://mobilephonesource.co.uk https://discord-servers.io https://esmark.net https://slotmgc.com https://nikeshoesinc.us https://ellisislandimmigrants.org https://holidaysanthology.com https://southaventownecenter.net https://jimgodfreydesign.com https://mckinneypaintingpros.com https://enchantedmansion.org https://mckinneypaintingpros.com https://laurabrodieauthor.com https://holidaysanthology.com https://ardictionary.com https://113.30.151.116 https://103.252.118.20 https://206.189.83.174 https://157.230.39.109 https://128.199.85.208 https://172.104.51.149 https://174.138.21.250 https://157.245.50.183 https://152.42.239.189 https://188.166.210.125 https://152.42.178.155 https://192.53.172.202 https://172.104.188.91 https://103.252.118.157 https://63.250.61.107 https://165.22.104.74

Penerapan Metode Moving Average untuk Prediksi Indeks Harga Konsumen

Authors

  • Asyifaa Nabilah Nurfadhilah UNISBA
  • Widodo Budi Badan Pusat Statistik Bandung Indonesia
  • Eti Kurniati Universitas Islam Bandung
  • Didi Suhaedi Universitas Islam Bandung

Keywords:

Single Moving Average, prediksi, Indeks Harga Konsumen, prediction, Consumer Prize Index

Abstract

Abstrak. Data time series merupakan sekumpulan data pada satu periode waktu tertentu. Data time series bisa di selesaikan dengan berbagai metode dengan pola data trend naik atau turun. Metode yang tepat untuk data Indeks Harga konsumen (IHK) Tujuh Kota di Jawa Barat yaitu metode Single Moving Average. Tujuan penulisan artikel ini untuk memprediksi nilai IHK pada masa mendatang yaitu bulan September 2021. Data yang digunakan untuk penelitian ini yaitu data IHK tujuh kota di Jawa Barat dari bulan Januari 2020 sampai Agustus 2021 yang didapat dari BPS kota Bandung. Penurunan harga atau deflasi bisa sangat menguntungkan bagi para konsumen tapi jika terus menerus akan merugikan untuk para produsen, sedangkan kenaikan harga atau inflasi jika terus menerus meningkat akan sangat merugikan bagi konsumen terutama masyarakat kalangan menengah, maka diperlukan sasaran dari IHK bulanan. Hasil penelitian nilai IHK dengan metode Single Moving Average 3 periode untuk bulan September 2021 menurun dari data aktual bulan Agustus 2021 dan nilai error dengan MAPE yang cukup kecil.

Kata kunci: Single Moving Average, Prediksi, Indeks Harga Konsumen.

Abstract. Time series data is a collection of data in a certain time period. Time series data can be solved by various methods with up or down trend data patterns. The right method for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Seven Cities in West Java is the Single Moving Average method. The purpose of writing this article is to predict the value of the CPI in the future, namely September 2021. The data used for this research is CPI data for seven cities in West Java from January 2020 to August 2021 which was obtained from the BPS Bandung city. A decrease in prices or deflation can be very beneficial for consumers but if it continues it will be detrimental to producers, while a price increase or inflation if it continues to increase will be very detrimental to consumers, especially the middle class, then a monthly CPI target is needed. The results of the research on the CPI value using the 3 period Single Moving Average method for September 2021 decreased from the actual data for August 2021 and the error value with MAPE was quite small.

Keywords: Single Moving Average, Prediction, Consumer Price Index.

Downloads

Published

2022-06-28