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Pemodelan Box-Jenkins dan Exponential Smoothing untuk Prediksi Pengunjung Daerah Wisata Sayang Ka’ak Ciamis

Authors

  • Devilia Rahmawati Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Islam Bandung

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29313/jrm.v1i2.375

Keywords:

Peramalan, Box-Jenkins, ARIMA

Abstract

Abstract. Tourism is an inseparable part of human life. Various potential tourism objects that have been developed are natural tourism potentials, which are mostly owned by developing countries, including Indonesia. Forecasting foreign tourist arrivals is very important for the government and industry, because forecasting is the basis for effective policy planning, just as a tourist attraction called Wana Wisata Grand Sayang Kaak Ciamis needs an important tool in planning in order to take the right action. This article discusses the formation of models and forecasting the number of tourist visits at Wana Wisata Grand Sayang Ka'ak Ciamis, using the Box Jenkins method and the Double Exponential Smoothing method. The data of visitors to dear ka'ak ciamis tourism area has non-stationary characteristics. The results of the modeling of the two methods show that the Exponential Smoothing method is better (with an error of 7.77%) than the Box-Jenkins (with an error of 9.90%). Forecasting results using the Double Exponential Smoothing method in the 15th to 19th week as many as 192.172, 152, 131, 111 visitors.

Abstrak. Pariwisata merupakan bagian yang tidak terpisahkan dari kehidupan manusia. Berbagai potensi objek wisata yang dikembangakan adalah potensi wisata alam yang sebagian besar dimiliki oleh negara-negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia. Peramalan kunjungan wisatawan mancanegara sangat penting bagi pemerintah dan industri, karena peramalan menjadi dasar dalam perencanaan kebijakan yang efektif, Seperti halnya objek wisata yang bernama Wana Wisata Grand Sayang Kaak Ciamis membutuhkan alat bantu yang penting dalam suatu perencanaan agar dapat mengambil suatu tindakan yang tepat. Artikel ini membahas tentang pembentukan model dan peramalan jumlah kunjungan wisata pada Wana Wisata Grand Sayang Ka’ak Ciamis, dengan menggunakan metode Box Jenkins dan metode Double Exponential Smoothing. Data pengunjung wana wisata sayang ka’ak ciamis memiliki karakteristik yang non stasioner. Hasil pemodelan kedua metode menunjukan bahwa metode Exponential Smoothing lebih baik (dengan error 7,77%) daripada Box-Jenkins (dengan error 9,90%). Hasil peramalan dengan metode Double Exponential Smoothing pada minggu ke 15 sampai dengan ke 19 sebanyak 192,172, 152, 131, 111 pengunjung.

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Published

2021-12-23