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Penerapan Metode Average Based Fuzzy Time Series Lee Untuk Peramalan Harga Emas Di PT. X

Authors

  • Nurul Hani Pajriati Prodi Matematika, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Islam Bandung

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29313/jrm.v1i1.221

Keywords:

Fuzzy Time Series Lee (FTS), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

Abstract

Gold is one of investment that can provide attractive benefits in the future. One of the advantages of investing in gold is that the value of its assets is not significantly eroded by inflation. Although gold prices tend to be stable, investment risks remain. Therefore we need a method that can help to find out the prediction of the gold price at the time that will be the basis for making a decision. One of them is by using Fuzzy Time Series Lee's method. Fuzzy time series lee's method is a combination of fuzzy logic concepts with time series forecasting that can solve forecasting problems. This article discusses gold price forecasting at PT. Pegadaian from September 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021. From the results of the research conducted, it is known that the prediction of gold price data using average based fuzzy time series lee results in a gold price of Rp. 872,500 and has an error rate based on the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of 0.4364%. These results include very good criteria.

Emas merupakan salah satu bentuk investasi yang dapat membawa keuntungan menarik di masa yang akan datang. Salah satu keuntungan dari berinvestasi emas adalah nilai asetnya yang tidak tergerus inflasi secara signifikan. Meskipun harga emas cenderung stabil, tetapi resiko investasi emas tetap ada. Maka dari itu perlu suatu metode yang dapat membantu untuk mengetahui prediksi harga emas diwaktu yang akan sebagai dasar untuk membuat suatu keputusan. Salah satunya dengan menggunakan metode Fuzzy Time Series Lee. Metode fuzzy time series lee merupakan  gabungan konsep logika fuzzy dengan peramalan time series yang dapat menyelesaikan permasalahan suatu peramalan.  Artikel ini mendiskusikan tentang peramalan harga emas di PT. Pegadaian dari tanggal 1 September 2020 sampai tanggal 28 Februari 2021. Dari hasil penelitian yang dilakukan, diketahui bahwa prediksi data harga emas menggunakan average based fuzzy time series lee menghasilkan harga emas sebesar Rp. 872.500 dan memiliki tingkat kesalahan (error) berdasarkan nilai MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) sebesar 0,4364%. Hasil tersebut termasuk kriteria sangat baik.

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Published

2021-10-26