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Pendugaan Data Runtun Waktu Debit Aliran Sungai Cikeruh dengan Metode Thomas-Fiering

Authors

  • Meiske Shabrina Pesik Prodi Matematika, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Islam Bandung
  • Didi Suhaedi Universitas Islam Bandung

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29313/jrm.v1i1.104

Keywords:

Peramalan, Thomas-Fiering, Debit

Abstract

Abstract. The Cikeruh River is a source of water for the people who live in the watershed area. The shift in land management has resulted in problems in the availability of water resources. As a policy to overcome this problem, an estimation of the flow rate of the Cikeruh river was carried out. Cikeruh river flow discharge data is observational data with a monthly period included in time series data or time series data. This data has a seasonal pattern so that the method that can be used to predict the discharge data is the Thomas-Fiering Method. To estimate the discharge data for 2018, the Cikeruh river flow discharge data were used every month from 2011 to 2017 as many as 84 historical data. Then after getting the results of the 2018 debit data estimation, the mean error value calculated using Thomas-Fiering was 0.0291.

Abstrak. Sungai Cikeruh merupakan sumber air bagi masyarakat yang bermukim di wilayah daerah aliran sungai. Terjadinya pergeseran tata kelola lahan mengakibatkan permasalahan ketersediaan sumber daya air. Sebagai suatu kebijakan untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut maka dilakukan pendugaan debit aliran sungai Cikeruh. Data debit aliran sungai Cikeruh merupakan data pengamatan dengan periode bulanan yang termasuk dalam data time series atau data runtun waktu. Data ini memiliki pola  musiman sehingga metode yang dapat digunakan untuk membuat pendugaan data debit adalah Metode Thomas-Fiering. Untuk menduga data debit tahun 2018 digunakan data debit aliran sungai Cikeruh setiap bulannya dari tahun 2011 sampai 2017 sebanyak 84 data historis. Kemudian setelah mendapatkan hasil pendugaan data debit tahun 2018 didapatkan nilai Mean Error perhitungan menggunakan Thomas-Fiering adalah 0.0291.

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Published

2021-07-06