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Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Dependency Ratio terhadap Tingkat Kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Barat Tahun 2000-2019

Authors

  • Nurhafizah Ilmu Ekonomi, Universitas Islam Bandung
  • Ade Yunita Mafruhat Ilmu Ekonomi, Universitas Islam Bandung

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29313/jrieb.v1i2.402

Keywords:

Tingkat Kemiskinan, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Dependency Ratio

Abstract

Abstract. This study aims to determine the effect of economic growth and dependency ratio on poverty levels in West Java Province in the long term and short term. In the trickle-down effect theory, it is stated that poverty is influenced by economic growth. While in the population cycle theory, poverty is influenced by the dependency ratio. The method used in this research is a quantitative approach method with time series data. The type of data used in this study is secondary data sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The analytical method used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results show that in the long term economic growth has a positive effect on the poverty level in West Java, amounting to 0.319797% and the dependency ratio has a positive effect on the poverty level in West Java Province, amounting to 0.323306%. Meanwhile, in the short term, economic growth has a positive effect on the poverty level of West Java Province in the previous two years of 0.241979% and the dependency ratio has an effect on the poverty level of West Java Province in the previous year of 0.323738%. Poverty responses fluctuate to economic growth shocks and dependency ratios. The average contribution to the dependency ratio is 29.89%. while the average contribution to economic growth is 6.79%.

Abstrak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi dan dependency ratio terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Barat dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Dalam teori trickle-down effect dinyatakan bahwa kemiskinan dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi. Sementara dalam teori siklus populasi, kemiskinan dipengaruhi oleh dependency ratio. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian yaitu metode pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data time series. Jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu data sekunder yang bersumber dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh positif terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Jawa Barat, sebesar 0,319797% dan dependency ratio berpengaruh positif terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Barat, sebesar 0,323306%. Sementara dalam jangka pendek pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh positif terhadap tingkat kemiskinan Provinsi Jawa Barat pada dua tahun sebelumnya sebesar 0,241979% dan dependency ratio berpengaruh terhadap tingkat kemiskinan di Provinsi Jawa Barat pada satu tahun sebelumnya sebesar 0,323738%. Respon kemiskinan berfluktuatif terhadap shock pertumbuhan ekonomi dan dependency ratio. Kontribusi pada dependency ratio rata-rata sebesar 29,89%. sedangkan pada pertumbuhan ekonomi rata-rata kontribusinya sebesar 6,79%.

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Published

2021-12-23